Dice Roll Probabilities
The foundation of all Catan strategy: understanding the probability of each dice roll with two six-sided dice. The number of "dots" on each Catan number token represents its relative probability.
| Roll | Combinations | Probability | Dots | Expected per 36 rolls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | 2.78% | 1 • | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 5.56% | 2 •• | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | 8.33% | 3 ••• | 3 |
| 5 | 4 | 11.11% | 4 •••• | 4 |
| 6 | 5 | 13.89% | 5 ••••• | 5 |
| 7 | 6 | 16.67% | — | 6 |
| 8 | 5 | 13.89% | 5 ••••• | 5 |
| 9 | 4 | 11.11% | 4 •••• | 4 |
| 10 | 3 | 8.33% | 3 ••• | 3 |
| 11 | 2 | 5.56% | 2 •• | 2 |
| 12 | 1 | 2.78% | 1 • | 1 |
Key Insights
- 6 and 8 are the most valuable production numbers (5 dots each, 13.89% chance).
- 7 is the most common roll (16.67%) — and triggers the robber.
- A 6 or 8 hits 5 out of every 36 rolls on average. A 2 or 12 hits only 1.
- Numbers are symmetric: 5 and 9 are equally likely, 4 and 10, etc.
- The total "dots" across all your settlements measure your expected resource income.
Monte Carlo Resource Simulator
Simulate thousands of Catan games to see how your resource production plays out over time. Enter the dice numbers on your hexes for each resource type.
Number Comparison Analyzer
Is placing on a 3 and a 4 as good as a single 8? Compare any set of hex numbers head-to-head with Monte Carlo simulations to find out.
Strategy A
Comma-separated dice numbers
Strategy B
Comma-separated dice numbers
Build Timeline Calculator
How many turns until you can afford that city or dev card? Enter your production numbers and the resources you need, and see the cumulative probability of affording it by each turn.
Target Build Cost
Settlement Placement Advisor
Compare potential settlement spots by entering the hex numbers and resource types at each intersection. See production scores, resource diversity, and expected income at a glance.
Spot 1
Spot 2
Weird Games Analyzer
How often do "weird" outcomes happen — like 12 being rolled more than 8 in a single game? Simulate thousands of games and find out how common statistical anomalies really are. This analysis was inspired by real gameplay where unlikely outcomes felt surprisingly frequent.
Define "Weird"
A "weird" event: a less likely number is rolled more than a more likely number in a single game.